FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

228.74 – 271.1

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.8 ±10.4

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 41.36Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 166.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 20.68Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.4 ±9.8

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 131.65Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 92.14Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 47.31Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8177, 2714, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8177, 2714, 10913

Auto

50.5 22%

Teleop

138.0 60%

Endgame

42.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4063, 5414, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4063, 5414, 9136

Auto

36.3 14%

Teleop

135.5 51%

Endgame

93.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score228.7pts

Blue projected score271.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.4
Score range: 175–325
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 298.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.8Season APEX349.4

50.5Auto36.3

138Teleop135.5

42.5Endgame93.6

136Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	41
teleop	78	76
endgame	42	56
foul	0	0
total	144	173

Result

Final score

144 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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