FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

383.35 – 346.85

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

310 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.9 ±9.8

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 123.61Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 174.63Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 85.11Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.7 ±9.3

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 108.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 140.06Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 97.9Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5427, 8749, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5427, 8749, 6357

Auto

56.8 15%

Teleop

218.5 58%

Endgame

98.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3035, 2848, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3035, 2848, 2158

Auto

54.4 16%

Teleop

200.8 58%

Endgame

89.3 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score383.4pts

Blue projected score346.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.5
Score range: 293–437
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 297.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.9Season APEX557.7

56.8Auto54.4

218.5Teleop200.8

98.4Endgame89.3

93Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	56
teleop	188	203
endgame	56	109
foul	0	5
total	310	373

Result

Final score

310 – 373

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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