FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.19 – 340.96

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.9 ±10.4

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 88.21Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 7.81Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 106.17Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.8 ±9.8

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 129.68Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 103.34Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 107.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2689, 10518, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2689, 10518, 8576

Auto

41.6 20%

Teleop

94.9 46%

Endgame

68.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7312, 7492, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

341 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7312, 7492, 2583

Auto

58.0 17%

Teleop

199.9 60%

Endgame

73.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score202.2pts

Blue projected score341pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.8
Score range: 148–395
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 298.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.9Season APEX497.8

41.6Auto58

94.9Teleop199.9

68Endgame73.9

92Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	100
teleop	125	65
endgame	77	10
foul	0	0
total	239	175

Result

Final score

239 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 101.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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