FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.55 – 160.35

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 160 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.5 ±10.4

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX -Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 27.43Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX -Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 509.3 ±9.8

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 88.86Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 27.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX -Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 8177, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9506, 8177, 3561

Auto

38.7 33%

Teleop

54.1 47%

Endgame

22.8 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7492, 3035, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7492, 3035, 2714

Auto

40.4 25%

Teleop

89.5 56%

Endgame

30.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score115.5pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.8
Score range: 68–208
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 264.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.5Season APEX509.3

12.3Auto27.2

10Teleop67.4

5.1Endgame21.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	54
teleop	74	233
endgame	6	151
foul	15	0
total	158	438

Result

Final score

158 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 160 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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