FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.3 – 214.06

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.5 ±9.8

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 46.05Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 68.09Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 172.16Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 419.9 ±9.8

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 33.12Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 106.55Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 74.39Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7616, 8114, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7616, 8114, 4206

Auto

50.2 18%

Teleop

160.2 57%

Endgame

70.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 231, 8858, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 231, 8858, 9506

Auto

43.3 20%

Teleop

134.4 63%

Endgame

34.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score286.3pts

Blue projected score214.1pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.2
Score range: 160–340
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 298.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.5Season APEX419.9

50.2Auto43.3

160.2Teleop134.4

70Endgame34.1

86Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	37
teleop	204	175
endgame	117	69
foul	0	5
total	356	286

Result

Final score

356 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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