FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

284.64 – 196.01

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

453 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 136.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.1 ±9.8

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 99.83Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 38.71Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 146.1Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.3 ±9.8

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX 6.81Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 95.5Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 93.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 8769, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10385, 8769, 148

Auto

54.6 20%

Teleop

135.6 49%

Endgame

88.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11169, 127, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11169, 127, 418

Auto

51.7 27%

Teleop

86.4 46%

Endgame

51.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.6pts

Blue projected score196pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.6
Score range: 143–338
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 296.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.1Season APEX281.3

54.6Auto51.7

135.6Teleop86.4

88.3Endgame51.5

104Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	76
teleop	252	167
endgame	137	52
foul	5	5
total	453	300

Result

Final score

453 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 136.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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