Qualification · Qualification 76
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
225.79 – 333.7
21%79%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
235 – 462
Prediction correct · off by 68.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±10.4
Season APEX 112Event APEX 97.46Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 73.59Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 54.74Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 273.49Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -10.46Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 70.67Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4639, 3561, 5411
54
/ 100 compatProjected
225.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4639, 3561, 5411
Auto
35.9 16%
Teleop
133.0 60%
Endgame
52.9 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9128, 8818, 3310
74
/ 100 compatProjected
333.7 pts
~2.3 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9128, 8818, 3310
Auto
86.9 26%
Teleop
166.8 50%
Endgame
76.6 23%
Strengths
- · 9128 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 52%
Supercharged: 16%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.32
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score225.8pts
Blue projected score333.7pts
Red win probability21%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -107.9
- Score range
- 173–387
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
255.3Season APEX540.3
35.9Auto86.9
133Teleop166.8
52.9Endgame76.6
79Consistency90
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 73 |
| teleop | 151 | 281 |
| endgame | 64 | 108 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 235 | 462 |
Result
Final score
235 – 462
Prediction correct · off by 68.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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