FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.11 – 320.08

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

292 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±10.4

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 29.81Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 97.18Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 11.12Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.6 ±9.3

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 105.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 175.8Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 39.24Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4153, 8576, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4153, 8576, 10913

Auto

20.9 16%

Teleop

79.6 60%

Endgame

31.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3035, 8749, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3035, 8749, 9136

Auto

50.2 16%

Teleop

180.5 58%

Endgame

81.5 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score320.1pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -182
Score range: 85–373
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 674 vs event baseline 295.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX575.6

20.9Auto50.2

79.6Teleop180.5

31.7Endgame81.5

142Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	36
teleop	190	236
endgame	49	110
foul	5	0
total	292	382

Result

Final score

292 – 382

Prediction correct · off by 107.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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