FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.55 – 236.67

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389.4 ±9.8

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 24.87Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 29.82Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 135.86Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.4 ±10.4

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 73.32Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 89.56Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 73.79Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 231, 8177, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 231, 8177, 6773

Auto

61.8 33%

Teleop

111.8 61%

Endgame

11.1 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11178, 2689, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11178, 2689, 9506

Auto

65.1 28%

Teleop

99.9 43%

Endgame

65.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score190.6pts

Blue projected score236.7pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.1
Score range: 138–290
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 575 vs event baseline 296.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389.4Season APEX393.4

61.8Auto65.1

111.8Teleop99.9

11.1Endgame65.9

130Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	72
teleop	195	99
endgame	47	88
foul	0	5
total	311	264

Result

Final score

311 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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