FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

291.19 – 425.5

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

252 – 534

Prediction correct · off by 73.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411 ±9.8

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 98.31Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 18.22Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 174.66Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 577.8 ±9.3

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 162.27Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 142.41Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 120.82Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9140, 5503, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9140, 5503, 2714

Auto

40.2 14%

Teleop

163.8 56%

Endgame

86.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4206, 148, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

425.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4206, 148, 7312

Auto

76.6 18%

Teleop

234.3 56%

Endgame

108.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score291.2pts

Blue projected score425.5pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -134.3
Score range: 238–479
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 786 vs event baseline 295.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411Season APEX577.8

40.2Auto76.6

163.8Teleop234.3

86.5Endgame108.2

98Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	87
teleop	115	320
endgame	71	127
foul	15	0
total	252	534

Result

Final score

252 – 534

Prediction correct · off by 73.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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