FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.32 – 201.82

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

365 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.1 ±10.4

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 94.5Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 63.36Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 143.46Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.4 ±10.4

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 88.89Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 70.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 42.12Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10385, 3310, 457

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10385, 3310, 457

Auto

47.2 15%

Teleop

168.8 55%

Endgame

91.1 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6357, 4192, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6357, 4192, 8769

Auto

32.3 16%

Teleop

116.0 59%

Endgame

48.7 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score301.3pts

Blue projected score201.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.5
Score range: 149–354
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 295.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.1Season APEX267.4

47.2Auto32.3

168.8Teleop116

91.1Endgame48.7

69Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	36
teleop	222	103
endgame	73	59
foul	10	0
total	365	198

Result

Final score

365 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 33.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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