FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.94 – 449.71

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

459 – 591

Prediction correct · off by 159.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.7 ±9.3

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 104.68Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 95.42Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 81.84Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 657.4 ±9.3

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 60.59Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 124.18Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 264.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5427, 2583, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5427, 2583, 127

Auto

59.6 22%

Teleop

162.6 61%

Endgame

46.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3561, 5572, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.7 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3561, 5572, 9128

Auto

85.0 20%

Teleop

261.5 60%

Endgame

87.3 20%

Strengths

· 9128 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score281.9pts

Blue projected score449.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.8
Score range: 229–503
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1050 vs event baseline 292.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.7Season APEX657.4

59.6Auto85

162.6Teleop261.5

46.4Endgame87.3

72Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	125
teleop	230	345
endgame	156	121
foul	0	0
total	459	591

Result

Final score

459 – 591

Prediction correct · off by 159.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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