FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.49 – 218.44

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

242 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 107 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.2 ±10.4

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 89.15Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 187.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 53.97Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448 ±9.8

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 51.82Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 6.27Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 160.35Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 2714, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9506, 2714, 8769

Auto

64.3 20%

Teleop

170.8 53%

Endgame

88.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 5503, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3310, 5503, 8749

Auto

35.2 17%

Teleop

117.0 57%

Endgame

51.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score330.5pts

Blue projected score218.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.1
Score range: 165–383
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 586 vs event baseline 292.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.2Season APEX448

64.3Auto35.2

170.8Teleop117

88.5Endgame51.5

177Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	56
teleop	118	206
endgame	79	82
foul	0	0
total	242	344

Result

Final score

242 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 107 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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