FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.18 – 258.69

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

590 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 112.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 680.9 ±9.3

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 100.88Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 246.58Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 76.72Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.9 ±10.4

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 92.12Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 55.11Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 111.46Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8858, 9128, 10385

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 9128, 10385

Auto

84.7 20%

Teleop

249.3 60%

Endgame

80.7 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2158, 5411, 7312

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2158, 5411, 7312

Auto

35.5 14%

Teleop

147.1 58%

Endgame

71.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score424.2pts

Blue projected score258.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.5
Score range: 207–476
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 908 vs event baseline 291.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

680.9Season APEX269.9

84.7Auto35.5

249.3Teleop147.1

80.7Endgame71

150Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	50
teleop	305	177
endgame	158	91
foul	5	0
total	590	318

Result

Final score

590 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 112.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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