FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.33 – 113.38

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

215 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.2 ±10.4

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 72.97Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 71.5Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 76.86Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368.7 ±9.8

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 114.44Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 10.88Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -11.94Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4192, 8114, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4192, 8114, 11178

Auto

47.4 22%

Teleop

117.9 54%

Endgame

52.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5572, 10913, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5572, 10913, 11169

Auto

16.3 16%

Teleop

84.3 82%

Endgame

1.7 2%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score221.3pts

Blue projected score113.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108
Score range: 60–274
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 292.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.2Season APEX368.7

47.4Auto16.3

117.9Teleop84.3

52.2Endgame1.7

91Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	31
teleop	132	126
endgame	62	61
foul	0	0
total	215	218

Result

Final score

215 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 55.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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