FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

190.72 – 555.85

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 628

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.2 ±10.4

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 103.17Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 89.57Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -2.02Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 644.8 ±8.8

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 295.49Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 170.45Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 89.91Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8576, 6357, 8818

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8576, 6357, 8818

Auto

38.3 20%

Teleop

81.5 43%

Endgame

70.9 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6369, 4206, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

555.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6369, 4206, 5427

Auto

99.9 18%

Teleop

308.3 56%

Endgame

143.4 26%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.68 · Blue 3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score190.7pts

Blue projected score555.9pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -365.1
Score range: 139–608
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 827 vs event baseline 290.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.2Season APEX644.8

38.3Auto99.9

81.5Teleop308.3

70.9Endgame143.4

112Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	79
teleop	129	376
endgame	27	158
foul	0	15
total	199	628

Result

Final score

199 – 628

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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