FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.83 – 293.12

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 287.6 ±10.4

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 113.22Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 55.53Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 101.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 612.3 ±9.3

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 100.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 98.84Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 93.68Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7492, 9136, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7492, 9136, 418

Auto

40.9 15%

Teleop

156.7 59%

Endgame

66.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3035, 2583, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3035, 2583, 4639

Auto

60.0 21%

Teleop

180.1 63%

Endgame

45.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.8pts

Blue projected score293.1pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.3
Score range: 218–345
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 291.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

287.6Season APEX612.3

40.9Auto60

156.7Teleop180.1

66.9Endgame45.5

124Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	70
teleop	113	175
endgame	93	37
foul	0	5
total	225	287

Result

Final score

225 – 287

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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