FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.43 – 214.07

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 97.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 554.6 ±9.3

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 110.39Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 132.94Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 45.1Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 275.8 ±10.4

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 63.22Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 71.59Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 79.26Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5572, 148, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.4 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5572, 148, 8177

Auto

64.4 23%

Teleop

172.3 62%

Endgame

40.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8114, 10385, 2158

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8114, 10385, 2158

Auto

37.7 18%

Teleop

126.3 60%

Endgame

46.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score288.4pts

Blue projected score214.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.4
Score range: 162–340
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 698 vs event baseline 287.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

554.6Season APEX275.8

64.4Auto37.7

172.3Teleop126.3

40.7Endgame46.1

71Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	51
teleop	229	167
endgame	85	114
foul	0	0
total	366	332

Result

Final score

366 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 97.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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