FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

290.72 – 387.2

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 72.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.4 ±9.8

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 45.46Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 161.59Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 83.67Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.8 ±9.8

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 154.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 32.61Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 200.23Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5411, 4206, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5411, 4206, 6357

Auto

54.2 18%

Teleop

156.6 53%

Endgame

86.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6773, 4153, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

387.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6773, 4153, 2714

Auto

77.4 20%

Teleop

207.0 54%

Endgame

98.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score290.7pts

Blue projected score387.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.5
Score range: 239–439
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 714 vs event baseline 286.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.4Season APEX420.8

54.2Auto77.4

156.6Teleop207

86.1Endgame98.3

127Consistency178

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	73
teleop	226	172
endgame	104	88
foul	0	0
total	381	333

Result

Final score

381 – 333

Prediction missed · off by 72.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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