FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

348.23 – 113.96

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.3 ±10.4

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 97.09Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 161.05Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 90.09Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.8 ±10.4

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 51.15Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 50.07Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 12.74Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 457, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

348.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9506, 457, 5427

Auto

54.4 16%

Teleop

199.2 59%

Endgame

83.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9136, 3310, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9136, 3310, 10913

Auto

13.3 12%

Teleop

64.9 59%

Endgame

32.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score348.2pts

Blue projected score114pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 234.3
Score range: 62–400
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 287.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.3Season APEX270.8

54.4Auto13.3

199.2Teleop64.9

83.9Endgame32.3

147Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	23
teleop	188	78
endgame	86	45
foul	0	0
total	325	146

Result

Final score

325 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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