FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

166.22 – 318.98

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

248 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±9.3

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 86.57Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 94.99Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -15.34Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.1 ±9.8

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 141.64Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 79.21Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 98.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2583, 8858, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2583, 8858, 11169

Auto

53.8 36%

Teleop

98.9 66%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2848, 11178, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 11178, 418

Auto

67.9 22%

Teleop

171.3 55%

Endgame

74.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score319pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.8
Score range: 114–371
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 591 vs event baseline 287.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX526.1

53.8Auto67.9

98.9Teleop171.3

-2.8Endgame74.6

73Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	73
teleop	158	214
endgame	58	56
foul	0	0
total	248	343

Result

Final score

248 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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