FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

371.46 – 277.27

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

473 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 620.5 ±8.8

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 289.45Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 85.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -3.06Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.7 ±9.8

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 113.3Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 88.09Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 75.88Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6369, 3035, 8818

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6369, 3035, 8818

Auto

65.5 17%

Teleop

206.3 55%

Endgame

102.9 27%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7492, 127, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7492, 127, 4192

Auto

50.3 18%

Teleop

176.0 63%

Endgame

51.1 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score371.5pts

Blue projected score277.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.2
Score range: 226–422
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 285.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

620.5Season APEX325.7

65.5Auto50.3

206.3Teleop176

102.9Endgame51.1

143Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	46
teleop	208	172
endgame	170	66
foul	0	20
total	473	304

Result

Final score

473 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 64.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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