FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

320.13 – 232.1

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

508 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±9.8

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 175.57Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 26.03Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 118.53Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268 ±10.4

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 70.54Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 52.75Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 108.81Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 5411, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2714, 5411, 8749

Auto

37.9 12%

Teleop

187.1 60%

Endgame

88.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8114, 3561, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8114, 3561, 2689

Auto

51.4 23%

Teleop

76.5 34%

Endgame

95.5 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score320.1pts

Blue projected score232.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88
Score range: 181–371
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 727 vs event baseline 284.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468Season APEX268

37.9Auto51.4

187.1Teleop76.5

88.7Endgame95.5

134Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	21
teleop	290	118
endgame	132	80
foul	0	0
total	508	219

Result

Final score

508 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 100.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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