FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.08 – 269.39

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

371 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.6 ±9.8

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 226.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 28.03Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 38.01Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287.7 ±10.4

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 163.63Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 77.41Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 28.35Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9128, 7616, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9128, 7616, 8177

Auto

75.3 27%

Teleop

153.8 54%

Endgame

54.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 457, 6357, 4153

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 457, 6357, 4153

Auto

29.0 11%

Teleop

154.5 57%

Endgame

85.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score292.1pts

Blue projected score269.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 218–343
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 283.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.6Season APEX287.7

75.3Auto29

153.8Teleop154.5

54.3Endgame85.8

114Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	49
teleop	197	123
endgame	39	106
foul	15	0
total	371	278

Result

Final score

371 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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