FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

340.92 – 198.95

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 115 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.7 ±9.3

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 106.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 164.84Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 69.33Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.6 ±9.3

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 94.84Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 28.74Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 75.37Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2583, 6773, 9136

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2583, 6773, 9136

Auto

71.3 22%

Teleop

190.6 59%

Endgame

60.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 3310, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

199 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9140, 3310, 8858

Auto

17.8 9%

Teleop

132.8 67%

Endgame

48.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score340.9pts

Blue projected score199pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142
Score range: 148–392
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 604 vs event baseline 283.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.7Season APEX601.6

71.3Auto17.8

190.6Teleop132.8

60.6Endgame48.3

102Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	48
teleop	148	206
endgame	33	92
foul	0	0
total	258	346

Result

Final score

258 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 115 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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