FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.95 – 306.89

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.6 ±10.4

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 106.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 87.07Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 92.96Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.5 ±9.8

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 75.71Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 181.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 49.92Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 418, 4639, 3310

/ 100 compat

Projected

287 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 418, 4639, 3310

Auto

45.7 16%

Teleop

168.7 59%

Endgame

69.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8114, 8749, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8114, 8749, 231

Auto

48.4 16%

Teleop

178.0 59%

Endgame

77.3 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score287pts

Blue projected score306.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.9
Score range: 230–364
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 505 vs event baseline 314.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.6Season APEX453.5

45.7Auto48.4

168.7Teleop178

69.9Endgame77.3

144Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	49
teleop	161	159
endgame	48	37
foul	0	20
total	240	265

Result

Final score

240 – 265

Prediction correct · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree