FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.64 – 330.37

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

259 – 383

Prediction missed · off by 68.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.7 ±9.8

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 98.88Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 109.34Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 135.42Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.4 ±9.8

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 67.97Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 102.37Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 160.03Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5427, 5414, 7492

/ 100 compat

Projected

343.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5427, 5414, 7492

Auto

40.0 12%

Teleop

219.5 67%

Endgame

68.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4192, 418, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4192, 418, 4206

Auto

69.9 21%

Teleop

201.9 59%

Endgame

68.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score343.6pts

Blue projected score330.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.3
Score range: 279–395
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 282.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.7Season APEX396.4

40Auto69.9

219.5Teleop201.9

68.6Endgame68.8

103Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	95
teleop	122	240
endgame	94	48
foul	15	0
total	259	383

Result

Final score

259 – 383

Prediction missed · off by 68.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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