FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.94 – 203.24

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564 ±9.3

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 88.75Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 119.82Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 82.37Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.1 ±9.8

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 118.3Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 88.99Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX -4.05Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 127, 148, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 127, 148, 11178

Auto

68.5 24%

Teleop

111.8 39%

Endgame

108.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8576, 3035, 5503

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8576, 3035, 5503

Auto

32.4 17%

Teleop

101.8 54%

Endgame

53.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score290.9pts

Blue projected score203.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.7
Score range: 152–342
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 561 vs event baseline 282.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564Season APEX437.1

68.5Auto32.4

111.8Teleop101.8

108.3Endgame53.8

56Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	30
teleop	174	148
endgame	48	63
foul	5	5
total	315	246

Result

Final score

315 – 246

Prediction correct · off by 33.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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