FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

394.44 – 183.25

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

500 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 103.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.1 ±9.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -15.57Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 267.45Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 142.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257 ±10.4

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 71.07Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 82.6Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 29.58Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11169, 6369, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

394.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11169, 6369, 4063

Auto

93.0 24%

Teleop

192.9 50%

Endgame

103.6 27%

Strengths

· 6369 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10385, 9506, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10385, 9506, 10518

Auto

58.2 32%

Teleop

90.3 49%

Endgame

35.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.8 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score394.4pts

Blue projected score183.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 211.2
Score range: 133–444
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 280.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.1Season APEX257

93Auto58.2

192.9Teleop90.3

103.6Endgame35.1

88Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	40
teleop	292	177
endgame	120	67
foul	0	0
total	500	284

Result

Final score

500 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 103.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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