FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.36 – 207.97

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

329 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 96.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.4 ±9.3

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 157.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 29.54Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 127.89Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.9 ±9.8

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 96.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 98.95Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 12.07Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6773, 7616, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6773, 7616, 5572

Auto

69.8 22%

Teleop

189.7 59%

Endgame

61.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8749, 2689, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

208 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8749, 2689, 8177

Auto

53.7 27%

Teleop

88.6 44%

Endgame

57.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score315.4pts

Blue projected score208pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107.4
Score range: 158–365
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 716 vs event baseline 278.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.4Season APEX446.9

69.8Auto53.7

189.7Teleop88.6

61.7Endgame57.2

118Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	67
teleop	222	221
endgame	29	99
foul	45	0
total	329	387

Result

Final score

329 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 96.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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