FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

210.77 – 282.06

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.6 ±9.8

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 57.2Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 77.34Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 76.23Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.1 ±10.4

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 47.99Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 153.62Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 80.45Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6357, 2158, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

210.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6357, 2158, 8858

Auto

27.2 13%

Teleop

135.3 66%

Endgame

42.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 7492, 3561

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3310, 7492, 3561

Auto

29.9 11%

Teleop

191.6 68%

Endgame

60.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score210.8pts

Blue projected score282.1pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.3
Score range: 161–332
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 279.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.6Season APEX344.1

27.2Auto29.9

135.3Teleop191.6

42.9Endgame60.6

125Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	33
teleop	176	72
endgame	69	62
foul	0	15
total	288	182

Result

Final score

288 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 88.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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