FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.5 – 204.12

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.7 ±9.3

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 124.8Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 5.76Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 113.94Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.3 ±10.4

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 63.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 29.78Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 110.53Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 148, 5503, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 148, 5503, 2583

Auto

57.3 25%

Teleop

122.8 53%

Endgame

52.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4192, 4153, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4192, 4153, 5427

Auto

27.0 14%

Teleop

138.9 71%

Endgame

28.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score244.5pts

Blue projected score204.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.4
Score range: 154–295
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 457 vs event baseline 278.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.7Season APEX284.3

57.3Auto27

122.8Teleop138.9

52.8Endgame28.6

31Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	37
teleop	108	126
endgame	31	59
foul	30	0
total	235	222

Result

Final score

235 – 222

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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