FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

422.36 – 217.06

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

294 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 116.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560.6 ±9.3

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 117.31Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 62.33Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 242.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.8 ±10.4

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -27.1Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 100.48Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 143.68Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 127, 231, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.4 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 127, 231, 9128

Auto

102.1 25%

Teleop

209.7 50%

Endgame

103.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11169, 8576, 2714

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11169, 8576, 2714

Auto

57.5 28%

Teleop

76.3 37%

Endgame

70.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.71 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score422.4pts

Blue projected score217.1pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 205.3
Score range: 167–472
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 616 vs event baseline 278.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560.6Season APEX342.8

102.1Auto57.5

209.7Teleop76.3

103.7Endgame70.8

76Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	68
teleop	153	170
endgame	62	84
foul	0	0
total	294	322

Result

Final score

294 – 322

Prediction missed · off by 116.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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