FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109.52 – 137.98

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.6 ±10.4

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 83.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX 27.71Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX -1.64Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±10.4

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 15.13Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 88.01Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 34.84Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 418, 8769, 5411

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 418, 8769, 5411

Auto

32.8 33%

Teleop

36.2 37%

Endgame

29.8 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10913, 11178, 10518

/ 100 compat

Projected

138 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10913, 11178, 10518

Auto

35.6 26%

Teleop

75.4 54%

Endgame

27.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score109.5pts

Blue projected score138pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 60–188
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 280.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.6Season APEX330.6

32.8Auto35.6

36.2Teleop75.4

29.8Endgame27.7

145Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	21
teleop	181	30
endgame	82	33
foul	0	5
total	295	89

Result

Final score

295 – 89

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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