FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

352.91 – 189.15

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 92.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567.1 ±9.3

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 112.2Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 118.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 121.94Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.1 ±9.8

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -16.9Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 89.98Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 116.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8114, 3035, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

352.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8114, 3035, 9140

Auto

39.9 11%

Teleop

234.1 67%

Endgame

77.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8818, 10385, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8818, 10385, 5414

Auto

32.6 17%

Teleop

102.6 54%

Endgame

56.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score352.9pts

Blue projected score189.2pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.8
Score range: 138–404
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 282.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567.1Season APEX347.1

39.9Auto32.6

234.1Teleop102.6

77.4Endgame56.4

62Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	33
teleop	64	88
endgame	86	41
foul	5	5
total	190	167

Result

Final score

190 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 92.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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