FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

413.24 – 270.85

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

614 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 106 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 766.5 ±8.1

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 97.55Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 79.04Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 236.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.7 ±10.4

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 54.25Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 80.59Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 136.01Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5572, 2848, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

413.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5572, 2848, 6369

Auto

60.9 15%

Teleop

260.4 64%

Endgame

87.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3310, 9506, 4063

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3310, 9506, 4063

Auto

48.9 18%

Teleop

168.6 63%

Endgame

48.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score413.2pts

Blue projected score270.9pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142.4
Score range: 221–463
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 896 vs event baseline 280.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

766.5Season APEX343.7

60.9Auto48.9

260.4Teleop168.6

87.8Endgame48.8

174Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	58
teleop	343	137
endgame	161	87
foul	5	0
total	614	282

Result

Final score

614 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 106 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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