FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

145.23 – 264.35

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

127 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.2 ±10.4

5503Smithville Tiger Trons

Season APEX 39Event APEX 6.36Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 42.75Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 96.12Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.6 ±10.4

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 80.34Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 78.08Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5427Steel Talons

Season APEX 129.8Event APEX 105.93Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5503, 7616, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5503, 7616, 2689

Auto

39.9 28%

Teleop

36.3 26%

Endgame

65.8 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4639, 9136, 5427

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4639, 9136, 5427

Auto

25.7 10%

Teleop

157.3 61%

Endgame

76.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score145.2pts

Blue projected score264.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.1
Score range: 94–315
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 285.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.2Season APEX296.6

39.9Auto25.7

36.3Teleop157.3

65.8Endgame76.6

97Consistency174

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	48
teleop	38	168
endgame	50	45
foul	0	25
total	127	286

Result

Final score

127 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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