FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.29 – 231.4

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

418 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.9 ±9.3

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 155.72Rank 2Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -36.2Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 221.77Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.9 ±9.8

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 90.53Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 16.12Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 124.75Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4206, 11169, 9128

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4206, 11169, 9128

Auto

85.4 26%

Teleop

192.1 58%

Endgame

53.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2158, 4153, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2158, 4153, 127

Auto

48.0 21%

Teleop

107.3 48%

Endgame

69.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.58 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.3pts

Blue projected score231.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.9
Score range: 181–391
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 607 vs event baseline 279.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.9Season APEX267.9

85.4Auto48

192.1Teleop107.3

53.3Endgame69.6

134Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	23
teleop	168	102
endgame	109	49
foul	15	15
total	418	189

Result

Final score

418 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree