FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

270.71 – 245.57

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

301 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.9 ±9.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 154.97Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 5.5Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 110.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 535.6 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 90.01Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 45.49Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 110.07Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 457, 10913, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 457, 10913, 3035

Auto

23.0 8%

Teleop

178.9 66%

Endgame

68.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5414, 231, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5414, 231, 148

Auto

58.6 25%

Teleop

136.7 57%

Endgame

43.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score270.7pts

Blue projected score245.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.1
Score range: 196–321
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 277.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.9Season APEX535.6

23Auto58.6

178.9Teleop136.7

68.8Endgame43.1

102Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	51
teleop	224	183
endgame	21	125
foul	5	0
total	301	359

Result

Final score

301 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 71.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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