FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.2 – 327

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.4 ±9.8

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX -10.56Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX 33.24Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8749Farmersville Robotics

Season APEX 271.3Event APEX 119.52Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 557.7 ±9.8

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 86.79Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 139.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11178Revelation

Season APEX 196Event APEX 100.96Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8818, 10518, 8749

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8818, 10518, 8749

Auto

12.1 9%

Teleop

81.8 61%

Endgame

41.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 2714, 11178

/ 100 compat

Projected

327 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 2714, 11178

Auto

64.8 20%

Teleop

154.5 48%

Endgame

102.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score142.2pts

Blue projected score327pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.8
Score range: 92–377
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 415 vs event baseline 280.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.4Season APEX557.7

12.1Auto64.8

81.8Teleop154.5

41Endgame102.8

101Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	55
teleop	42	172
endgame	47	75
foul	0	0
total	113	302

Result

Final score

113 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 27.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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