FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276 – 289.59

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.7 ±10.4

4063TriKzR4Kidz

Season APEX 114.6Event APEX 135.78Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10385Cycle-Breakers

Season APEX 109.3Event APEX 81.41Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6357The Spring Konstant

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 58.81Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.4 ±9.8

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 82.95Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 122.09Rank 17Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 84.55Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4063, 10385, 6357

/ 100 compat

Projected

276 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4063, 10385, 6357

Auto

61.4 22%

Teleop

129.3 46%

Endgame

91.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 9140, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 418, 9140, 9506

Auto

55.7 20%

Teleop

183.1 65%

Endgame

45.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score276pts

Blue projected score289.6pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.6
Score range: 226–340
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 276.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.7Season APEX436.4

61.4Auto55.7

129.3Teleop183.1

91.7Endgame45

126Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	72
teleop	144	169
endgame	82	59
foul	0	15
total	283	315

Result

Final score

283 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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