FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.15 – 95.45

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±10.4

3310Black Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 137.7Event APEX 54.36Rank 19Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 81.98Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8769G.O.R.T.s

Season APEX 95.9Event APEX -0.19Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.3 ±10.4

7616Cerberus

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 44.95Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 83.42Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11169ERA Delta

Season APEX 59.3Event APEX -32.92Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3310, 2158, 8769

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3310, 2158, 8769

Auto

25.5 20%

Teleop

93.9 73%

Endgame

8.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7616, 9136, 11169

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7616, 9136, 11169

Auto

36.8 44%

Teleop

8.9 11%

Endgame

37.6 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.2pts

Blue projected score95.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 44–187
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 281.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.6Season APEX208.3

25.5Auto36.8

93.9Teleop8.9

8.7Endgame37.6

97Consistency188

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	27
teleop	88	34
endgame	49	39
foul	0	0
total	178	100

Result

Final score

178 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 23.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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