FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

396.64 – 388.2

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

333 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±9.8

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 83.47Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7492Turbo Torque

Season APEX 124.9Event APEX 176.78Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 136.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 733.8 ±9.3

9128ITKAN Robotics

Season APEX 344.8Event APEX 192.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 127.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 67.79Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 7492, 2689

/ 100 compat

Projected

396.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2848, 7492, 2689

Auto

67.3 17%

Teleop

219.7 55%

Endgame

110.5 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9128, 457, 148

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9128, 457, 148

Auto

107.4 27%

Teleop

207.6 53%

Endgame

77.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score396.6pts

Blue projected score388.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.4
Score range: 338–447
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 890 vs event baseline 275.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.1Season APEX733.8

67.3Auto107.4

219.7Teleop207.6

110.5Endgame77

73Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	94
teleop	177	296
endgame	105	162
foul	0	5
total	333	557

Result

Final score

333 – 557

Prediction missed · off by 116.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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