FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

176.04 – 215.38

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

356 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 92.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 501.2 ±9.3

10518D.A.D.S

Season APEX 56.3Event APEX -14.06Rank 44Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 149.29Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 40.81Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.4 ±9.8

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 119.73Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 21.23Rank 42Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 74.42Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10518, 6773, 8858

/ 100 compat

Projected

176 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10518, 6773, 8858

Auto

43.9 25%

Teleop

88.5 51%

Endgame

42.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 127, 10913, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 127, 10913, 4639

Auto

36.0 16%

Teleop

128.2 59%

Endgame

54.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score176pts

Blue projected score215.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.3
Score range: 126–265
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 275.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

501.2Season APEX304.4

43.9Auto36

88.5Teleop128.2

42.5Endgame54

157Consistency179

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	26
teleop	247	122
endgame	54	53
foul	0	10
total	356	211

Result

Final score

356 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 92.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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