FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

207.41 – 265.67

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 425.2 ±9.8

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 80.79Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4153Project Y

Season APEX 67.8Event APEX 27.04Rank 45Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3035Droid Rage

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 99.58Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.6 ±9.8

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 86.37Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 97.63Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 81.67Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 418, 4153, 3035

/ 100 compat

Projected

207.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 418, 4153, 3035

Auto

46.4 23%

Teleop

46.5 23%

Endgame

109.1 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5572, 7312, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5572, 7312, 9506

Auto

59.2 22%

Teleop

156.9 59%

Endgame

51.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score207.4pts

Blue projected score265.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.3
Score range: 158–315
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 270.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

425.2Season APEX444.6

46.4Auto59.2

46.5Teleop156.9

109.1Endgame51.1

114Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	39
teleop	180	191
endgame	30	57
foul	5	15
total	246	302

Result

Final score

246 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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