FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.19 – 118.86

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 93.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.4 ±9.8

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 17.79Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 159.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5411RoboTalons

Season APEX 61.8Event APEX 6.95Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.3 ±9.8

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 85.07Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -15.48Rank 35Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4192Jaguar Robotics

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 49.27Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8818, 2583, 5411

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8818, 2583, 5411

Auto

53.6 30%

Teleop

89.3 50%

Endgame

35.5 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5414, 8177, 4192

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5414, 8177, 4192

Auto

40.4 36%

Teleop

66.3 59%

Endgame

6.0 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score184.2pts

Blue projected score118.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.3
Score range: 70–233
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 273.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.4Season APEX336.3

53.6Auto40.4

89.3Teleop66.3

35.5Endgame6

194Consistency132

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	28
teleop	53	145
endgame	17	38
foul	5	0
total	90	211

Result

Final score

90 – 211

Prediction missed · off by 93.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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