FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

351.56 – 288.45

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

367 – 450

Prediction missed · off by 88.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.5 ±9.8

2714♨️ BBQ ♨️

Season APEX 134.9Event APEX 133.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8114Rocketeers

Season APEX 80.5Event APEX 83Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

127Bluetonium

Season APEX 114.1Event APEX 134.98Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.2 ±9.8

457⚙️ The Grease Monkeys ⚙️

Season APEX 135.1Event APEX 117.33Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2158the ausTIN CANs

Season APEX 86Event APEX 69.93Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6773Max Throttle Mavericks

Season APEX 218.1Event APEX 101.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2714, 8114, 127

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2714, 8114, 127

Auto

54.1 15%

Teleop

204.8 57%

Endgame

99.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 457, 2158, 6773

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 457, 2158, 6773

Auto

70.8 24%

Teleop

162.1 55%

Endgame

62.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score351.6pts

Blue projected score288.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.1
Score range: 241–399
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 817 vs event baseline 260.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.5Season APEX439.2

54.1Auto70.8

204.8Teleop162.1

99.4Endgame62

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	74
teleop	171	265
endgame	129	111
foul	0	0
total	367	450

Result

Final score

367 – 450

Prediction missed · off by 88.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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