FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

265.17 – 285.41

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.9 ±9.8

148Robowranglers

Season APEX 253.9Event APEX 70.67Rank 4Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 59.75Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 134.75Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 444.8 ±9.8

8858Beast from the East

Season APEX 226.8Event APEX 64.33Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2689Team Alpha

Season APEX 106Event APEX 140.02Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4639The RoboSpartans

Season APEX 112Event APEX 81.06Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 148, 9506, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 148, 9506, 8576

Auto

83.1 32%

Teleop

112.7 44%

Endgame

60.7 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8858, 2689, 4639

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8858, 2689, 4639

Auto

41.8 15%

Teleop

159.3 58%

Endgame

72.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score265.2pts

Blue projected score285.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.2
Score range: 218–332
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 259.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.9Season APEX444.8

83.1Auto41.8

112.7Teleop159.3

60.7Endgame72.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	55
teleop	174	123
endgame	63	79
foul	15	0
total	323	257

Result

Final score

323 – 257

Prediction missed · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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