FIRST In Texas District Championship - Apollo Division

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.61 – 412.09

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.5 ±9.8

9136Rampage

Season APEX 54.8Event APEX 62.28Rank 43Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3561RoboRaiders

Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 98.97Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 84.36Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 543.2 ±9.4

7312T3

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 90.82Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 106.99Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6369Mercenary Robotics

A+

Season APEX 313.2Event APEX 214.28Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9136, 3561, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9136, 3561, 2848

Auto

45.7 20%

Teleop

157.0 69%

Endgame

24.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7312, 418, 6369

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7312, 418, 6369

Auto

83.5 21%

Teleop

212.3 52%

Endgame

109.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score245.6pts

Blue projected score412.1pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample210alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -166.5
Score range: 200–458
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 667 vs event baseline 255.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.5Season APEX543.2

45.7Auto83.5

157Teleop212.3

24.2Endgame109.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	79
teleop	147	197
endgame	85	127
foul	5	0
total	264	403

Result

Final score

264 – 403

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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