Qualification · Qualification 19
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
144.27 – 142.35
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
169 – 175
Prediction missed · off by 28.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.8 ±9.8
Season APEX 180Event APEX 85.42Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 78.58Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39Event APEX -19.73Rank 41Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±9.8
Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 12Rank 39Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 29.17Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 101.18Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5414, 6357, 5503
50
/ 100 compatProjected
144.3 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 5414, 6357, 5503
Auto
25.7 18%
Teleop
86.0 59%
Endgame
33.7 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8818, 231, 5572
42
/ 100 compatProjected
142.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 8818, 231, 5572
Auto
47.3 32%
Teleop
98.5 67%
Endgame
1.1 1%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 43%
Supercharged: 11%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score144.3pts
Blue projected score142.4pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample210alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 43%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 1.9
- Score range
- 95–191
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
303.8Season APEX390.6
25.7Auto47.3
86Teleop98.5
33.7Endgame1.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 37 |
| teleop | 76 | 106 |
| endgame | 50 | 32 |
| foul | 30 | 0 |
| total | 169 | 175 |
Result
Final score
169 – 175
Prediction missed · off by 28.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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